We All Want to Win

I have no doubt we all want to defeat Trump. Some of us have differing ideas on the best way to do that, but we can't let that devolve into factions refusing to vote.

It’s been a week since the debate, and I wanted to make something abundantly clear:

I do not think you’re crazy for acknowledging Biden did a bad job.

As I continue to try to explain why I think Biden stepping aside is a bad idea, I’m noticing a pattern of repeated language in some of the pushback. The most common replies are “don’t gaslight me” about what “we all saw with our own eyes”, and “you’re MAGA 2.0” or “you’re in a cult.”

Let me be clear. I am not, nor have I ever said “You’re crazy - Biden did great!” Nor have I ever said that anyone is crazy for not feeling anxiety or being worried for our democracy. The way I see the disagreement is simple: all of us want to defeat Trump, and some of us have a different opinion about the best way to do that. Further, we are all currently up against the media trying to shape our view of how to proceed by sowing fear for profit.

So I’m here today - on independence day, which now feels like a husk of a holiday given the Supreme Court’s coronation of presidents effectively placing them well above the law - to reassure you that I do not think you’re crazy. We all saw the debate. We all felt anxiety and despair. There are a few reasons I’m not abandoning the Biden Harris ticket, and none of them are because I’m “in a MAGA-like cult.”

To be in a MAGA-like cult, you must stick by your leader in the face of horrendous atrocities: murder, rape, racism, xenophobia, snatching babies from mothers and building “tender-age” facilities to cage them …

Deciding not to walk away from Biden over one bad debate is not cult-like behavior. And accusing your fellow democrats of acting like MAGA is ridiculous and hurtful. I won’t entertain those accusations.

Next, I’m not gaslighting you, and I suspect no one is. Gaslighting you would be trying to convince you that the debate was totally fine. It wasn’t. Nor do I know a single person trying to convince anyone that it was. So the “what I saw with my own eyes” argument doesn’t apply. We all saw it with our own eyes, and we all acknowledge it was bad. We just might respond to that reality differently (not better or worse, just differently). That’s not gaslighting.

Further, I’m not telling anyone that they shouldn’t be anxious or scared. Gaslighting would be “You’re insane for being worried.” I would never do that. You’re right to be worried. Hell, I’m worried! This election is a big deal. We have to get it right or we don’t have a democracy anymore - and that’s not hyperbole.

So to recap: I do not think you’re wrong for feeling the way you do, and I acknowledge Biden shit the bed at the debate. So let’s talk about why I think the way forward is to stick with Biden and Harris.

I have listened to multiple experts and read multiple things from people who know more than I do, I mix that with the information I witnessed myself in 2016 and 2020, and based on all that, I do not think the path to victory is through switching candidates. Here’s why:

First, history is replete with examples of why it’s a bad idea. As Kimberly Atkins Stohr from the Sisters In Law podcast so eloquently put it to Nicolle Wallace on Deadline Whitehouse: history warns against defecting. She reminded us of what happened at contested convention in 1968, where LBJ stepped aside - leading to a Nixon victory. Then in 1980, some jittery democrats got the idea to break from Carter to push Ted Kennedy into the race. That split helped Reagan coast to victory. Then in 2016 - when Bernie Sanders supporters defected at the convention when Hillary accepted the nomination - that split (Bernie or Bust and Bern it all Down) helped usher in a Trump victory. Now, to be sure, the defections were likely not the only reasons democrats lost those elections, but they were certainly part of it. There’s no historical example of democrats winning after replacing or trying to replace their candidate.

Second, no other potential candidate polls as well as Biden does against Trump. Yes, polls are garbage, but with no successful historical precedent, we don’t have much else to go on. I have seen polls where Michelle Obama would beat Trump, but I don’t believe there’s a legal way to transfer the campaign money raised to her. Besides, she doesn’t want to run.

Third, Allan Lichtman - an American Historian who has taught history since 1973 and created the keys to the White House model which has successfully predicted 9 presidential elections - says Biden will win. Here are a few reasons why:

• There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination

• The incumbent party candidate is the current president

• There is no significant third party candidacy

• The economy is not in recession during the campaign

• Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms

• The administration has effected major policy changes during the term

Finally, the polls (which, again, I know are garbage but what else do we have) show no change (so far) in the Trump/Biden head-to-head matchup. Some show Biden gaining a few points, some show Biden losing a couple, and all are within the margin or error. Statistically flat. Again, that is THUS FAR, and I imagine there will be dip in the polls for Biden - but I don’t think that makes much of a difference four months from election day.

If you disagree, and you feel that swapping candidates won’t show weakness and could overcome the historical examples, that is 100% your prerogative. I do not agree, but not agreeing doesn’t make me MAGA. It doesn’t mean I’m gaslighting anyone. It doesn’t mean I’m in a cult. The debate was bad and I don’t think you’re crazy for freaking out. But based on history and the experts - I will not be calling for Biden to step aside. Comparing those of us who support Biden to MAGA and accusing us of gaslighting isn’t the way. To be sure, there may be folks out there who are gaslighting folks by trying to convince people that the debate was awesome - but I haven’t seen that, nor do I know anyone who thinks that.

In my view, the media is acting irresponsibly. Holding Biden to any standard while refusing to acknowledge what Trump is doing is journalistic malpractice. I truly believe that MORE people will not vote based on what the MEDIA has done than will stay home based on Joe’s performance a week ago. Now we have an interview with Stephanopolous Friday, which has now been moved to prime time - and there’ll be a transcript of the interview in it’s entirety released to the public. Trump get’s no such scrutiny, and I fear the media is setting Biden up to fail. If he shows up, answers the questions, looks good and sounds good - I’m afraid that won’t be enough for the punditocracy. But I do have hope that all this one-sided bullshit will subside as we get closer to the election.

I also want to acknowledge the folks who support Biden, but are now taking it on the chin with the “gaslighting” accusations and MAGA comparisons. It’s very difficult to maintain your stance under the onslaught of the very powerful money-motivated media. I know from personal experience that a handful of loud and angry voices can seem like a tidal wave, when it’s really just a few people. It’s been hard for me, too. But I dig down, remember the facts, and keep doing the work.

I think we can all agree that we need to keep Trump out of the White House, and that we will all vote for the democratic candidate no matter who that is. But I won’t participate in tearing down Biden - because if that rhetoric causes just one person to stay home this November - then I’m not helping defeat Trump. But that’s ME. That’s MY choice on what I do with MY voice. I will continue to debate folks who think we have a better chance by swapping candidates because I don’t believe it’s the way to beat Trump.

But I will not allow anyone who characterizes my good faith debate and discussion as gaslighting, cult-like behavior designed to stifle speech. We’ve got one shot, and we need to vote blue no matter who this November.

Let’s get to work.

~AG